The PGA Tour calendar heats up entering March as the Florida Swing continues its path this week at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Kicking off a crucial two-week stretch for competitors, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will present a stern test at Bay Hill as competitors compete in the fourth signature event of the season.
Unlike some of the others, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will feature a cut to the top 50 players and ties as well as those within 10 strokes of the lead at the halfway point.
A player who may not need to worry about his status on the cutline Friday evening is the man who has seemingly done no wrong at Bay Hill the last three seasons. Scottie Scheffler enters an important run of tournaments, serving as the defending champion not only this week but also next week at the Players Championship.
Twice a winner at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the world No. 1 looks to slip up his third red cardigan in the last four seasons. Scheffler has won four times in the state of Florida the last three years and will hope the good vibes of the Sunshine State can assist him after an up-and-down West Coast Swing.
Scheffler is joined in the field by the usual suspects such as Rory McIlroy, who will attempt to keep his patience in check at a water-riddled golf course, as well as world No. 3 Xander Schauffele. The start represents Schauffele’s first since the PGA Tour’s opening weekend after he was sidelined due to a rib injury and missed usual stops on the calendar throughout the PGA Tour’s time in California.
Schauffele will not have much time to play himself back into competitive form as only two or three tournaments separate him (and the rest of the big names) from the first tee at Augusta National.
Winners already this season like Ludvig Åberg, Hideki Matsuyama and Sepp Straka look to become the first multiple-time winners this year, while Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley and Sam Burns all look to enter the winner’s circle for the first time in a long time.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational schedule
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge — Orlando, Florida
Par: 72 | Yardage: 7,466
Purse: $20,000,000
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational field, odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler (7/2)
Rory McIlroy (15/2): A convergence of course history and good form are in line to collide this week for McIlroy. The 2018 champion was brilliant in California where he notched a victory at Pebble Beach and another contention run at Torrey Pines. His driver continues to separate him from fields, and that will be crucial for his chances this week as his new-found patience will be tested at a course like Bay Hill. McIlroy has four top 10s in his last six tournament appearances including a runner up in 2023.
Ludvig Åberg (16-1): Take away a few rounds of golf where Aberg was dealing with an illness, and he has been nothing short of spectacular. A Sunday 66 saw him steal the Genesis Invitational for the biggest title of his young career, and that confidence can only do him well from here on out. He has a pair of top 25s at this venue thanks to a subtle love affair with these greens; he has averaged more than one strokes gained per round with the putter across eight rounds.
Xander Schauffele (18-1): He is the biggest question mark among the top players simply because he has not been seen in a competitive tournament since the first week of the year. Schauffele returns to action at an unforgiving Bay Hill, which will put his game through the ringer and test the entirety of his skillset — something that should serve him well heading into the Masters. However, even when he has played himself into this tournament, Schauffele has struggled as he has zero top 20s in three attempts.
Collin Morikawa (22-1)
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
Justin Thomas (28-1): There were some really positive signs from Thomas across the first two months of the season. He ranked second in strokes gained approach behind only Fleetwood and fifth in strokes gained tee to green. That’s fantastic, but the bigger cause for optimism is what he is doing on the greens. The two-time major champion has gained strokes putting in four of five events — a massive improvement for someone who was a bottom-10 putter on the PGA Tour last season.
Hideki Matsuyama (28-1): Matsuyama has rattled off three top-25 finishes since his record-setting win at the Sentry as his iron play remains sharp and his putter surprisingly cooperative. What has held him back, however, has been the big stick; the man from Japan has struggled to hit fairways with any sort of consistency. If he can find the short grass off the tee, he can find the winner’s circle, but that might be a big if.
Patrick Cantlay (30-1)
Sungjae Im (40-1)
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions
player headshot
Scottie Scheffler
Winner (7/2): It wasn’t an ideal start to his comeback, but Scheffler showed enough to warrant consideration at a golf course at which he has done no wrong. He has lost to just three players across the last three seasons at Bay Hill as his T4 in 2023 sandwiched his two victories. The world No. 1 looks comfortable with the putter in hand, has flashed enough with his ball striking and remains the best course manager in the game.
player headshot
Patrick Cantlay
Contender (30-1): Bay Hill is an all-around test, which is right up Cantlay’s alley. The American ranks inside the top 25 in each strokes-gained metric so far this season, which has led to a couple top-five finishes including his last start at Torrey Pines. After a down year with the putter in 2024, Cantlay has come roaring back on the greens in the early stages of 2025.
player headshot
Sepp Straka
Sleeper (70-1): When are people going to put some respect on Straka’s name? The big Austrian ranks seventh in total strokes gained, eighth in strokes gained approach and ninth in strokes gained tee to green among those in this field. While he may not have the pop off the tee like his counterparts, he makes up for it with his accuracy where he ranks fourth. In his last five starts, Straka has a win and three other top-15 finishes.
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